Got up early and watched fog rivers rolling from the little porch off our room off the Parkway.
Traveling again at last.
Am recently returned from a long day in the upper mountain counties with a botanist friend. Posts coming about that, but first a few examples of this fall’s color and other sundries collected on Saturday and on a Parkway drive last weekend. Up first, the rose hips of Rosa palustris Marshall — the Swamp Rose, photographed Saturday, Oct. 13 in Allegheny County. Following that a striped maple near Linville Falls photographed Oct. 7 and cranberries and sphagnum also photographed Oct. 13 in Allegheny County.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Tropical storm Gabrielle (for now, it’s still subtropical) formed last night and is an immediate threat to the Outer Banks. A lot of big weather watchers are sniffing at the low winds, but don’t be lulled into thinking Sunday is going to be a walk in the park.
Graphics via NHC.
Jeff Masters looks at the impact:
Recent model runs have been pushing the track of Gabrielle further and further out to sea, and there is a good chance the storm will miss making a direct hit on the U.S. Regardless, most of the North Carolina coast from Wilmington to Kill Devil Hills will experience heavy rain of 1-4 inches. Tropical storm-force winds and a 3-4 foot storm surge will also affect some areas.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
As Felix speeds toward the Yucatan, there’s a new invest. At least one read on this disturbance has it veering a bit north.
Via Steve Gregory:
The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday night, and under 5 knots by Wednesday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. The 12Z (8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both develop 98L into a tropical storm, but keep it below hurricane strength. The storm will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. Given 98L’s more northerly starting location, it may eventually affect Puerto Rico.
Here, near the top of the Cape Fear basin, we’ve seen two and a half inches and more on the way as the now very extratropical Barry heads north.
Reports from the Coast and elsewhere show some serious wind and high surf and rip currents. Current watches.
Most of the headlines include the phrase much needed rains. Except in New Bern, where eyes were elsewhere.
There’s some question as to whether Barry was legit at all (unlike the above legit Barrys).
View from the Surface:
I wouldn’t have been surprised if it had been started as a subtropical storm, given the recon obs, and then switched fairly quickly to extratropical, but who ever heard of a tropical storm with a totally exposed low level circulation?
Totally.
And on cue, the first tropical storm of the season makes its way up the coast.
The latest forecast discussion includes some notes about what to expect along the coast. Wilmington is expecting heavy rain tonight and Sunday.
A flood watch is already on.
Also, here’s the June outlook from Jeff Masters.
And then there’s this not-so-cheery outlook on a Cat 5’s impact on the Outer Banks. Note the phrase Pamlico Bay.
Riggs said such a storm would break the chain of long, narrow islands into a perforated series of many smaller spots of sand. Instead of Pamlico Sound to the west, sailors would find Pamlico Bay. Where Alligator River now cuts into the mainland, the ocean will take over to create Alligator Sound.
Yet North Carolina’s Division of Emergency Management estimates that, even if a Category 5 hurricane turns toward the Outer Banks, several hundred defiant homeowners will try to ride the storm. Many will die as the violent weather destroys structures across the islands and carves several new inlets where land now stands up from the sea, said Orrin Pilkey, a professor emeritus of geology at Duke University.
This is not a blackberry winter. The flox survived the night. Not traveling much these days. Hope to a bit soon. Plenty to visit in the backyard. As in:
