Update: From this morning’s discussion at the NHC:
IN SUMMARY…ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Weather Underground blog.
Computer models.
Original post: Tropical Depression Five is getting another visit from the Hurricane Hunters this afternoon [...]
Fourth named storm of the season.
Some models shifting left.
Discussion via NHC.
Other stuff in the Caribbean, namely 97L.
Looks like a stretch of the Blue Ridge Parkway near Maggie Valley is going to be closed for quite a while. A recent rockslide near the Cranberry Overlook means a lot of work ahead to shore up the mountain and reopen the road.
Link to the Citizen-Times‘ slide show.
National Park Service news
The conventional wisdom has been that Tropical Depression Four, which is still around the Cape Verdes right now, will spin north. The new discussion from the NHC says it’s likely to track a little more westward than previously thought. To wit (emphasis added):
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13…BASED ON A 10-HOUR AVERAGE
MOTION USING PASSIVE AND [...]
Update: Still concern, what with the 30 mph gusts, but the wind shear will likely rip the storm apart late Thursday.
wunderground blog
National Hurricane Center outlook
Apparently, there’s an active system with a real chance to turn into a tropical depression about 150 miles off the North Carolina coast. Most of the experts are doubting it will [...]
(image from wunderground.com)
Via Jeff Masters: A couple of lows could cause some trouble along the Carolinas coast. NHC latest discussion.
NHC’s Perspectivas de las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
and NHC outlook:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141440
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
A [...]
Even with all the rain, July 2006 managed to be the second hottest on record. It topped 1934, but not that scorcher of a July in ‘36. Yep, that was a hot one, consarnit! July’s notch on the climate history books was equaled in June, which was proceeded by the fifth hottest May on record. [...]