The Cape Fear Mercury

Update: Not Ernesto’s fault exactly, but there sure is a lot of unstable air around here. I’ve never seen so many lightning strikes. As for Ernesto, still on track for a landfall Thursday night around the Francis Marion National Forest in S.C. and then a trip north through the Piedmont Friday morning.

Update: Hurricane watch discontinued at 11 a.m. Now a tropical storm warning:

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

Original post: Ernesto fizzled in South Florida according to the Miami Herald. But the NHC is still predicting that it could reach Cat 1 strength before it crosses the NC/SC coast.

From the 5 a.m. discussion:

ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE THE CENTER REMAIN OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD ALSO HOLD
ONTO TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO RAINBANDS ALONG THE
COAST CONTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES
BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...IT WILL BE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE GULFSTREAM AND BENEATH A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE
OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER
WATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN...AND FOR THAT REASON
THE FOR MAINTAINING THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
BE AT 79 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AGAIN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO
HIGH BUT STILL INDICATIVE THAT IT COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS. AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR KEEPING
ERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 72 HOURS AND FOR EXPANDING THE WIND
FIELD FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THAT TIME.

I’ll be updating things here on this post today. If something significant happens, I’ll write a new post.