Looks like the second tropical storm of the season — Bertha — is chugging along.
Here’s the five day forecast map
And Dr. Jeff’s take
Bertha’s at 25° West longitude is the farthest east a tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic so early in the season.
He also notes that it is likely that this means an active season.
Here’s the latest NWS advisory
North Carolina State University researchers offer their predictions for the season:
Lian Xie, a professor in the Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at N.C. State, and graduate student Elinor Keith said Wednesday that their forecasts call for 13 to 15 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Six to eight of the storms could become hurricanes, they said.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The southeast coast of the U.S. could see one or two named storms make landfall, and there is a better than 50 percent chance that at least one of the storms will be a hurricane, Xie said.
Spent a little while in a slave cemetery not far from where I live.
A sad place for all kinds of reasons with sunken depressions and stones in a row.
As I wandered around and photographed the stones, had a Blind Lemon Jefferson song running through my head.
See That My Grave Is Swept Clean
Well there’s one kind of flavor I’ll ask for you
Well there’s one kind of flavor I’ll ask for you
There’s just one kind of flavor I’ll ask for you
You can see that my grave is kept cleanAnd there’s two white horses following me
And there’s two white horses following me
I got two white horses following me
Waiting on my burying groundDid you ever hear that coffin sound
Did you ever hear that coffin sound
Did you ever hear that coffin sound
Means another poor boy is under the groundDid you ever hear them church bells toll
Did you ever hear them church bells toll
Did you ever hear them church bells toll
Means another poor boy is dead and goneAnd my heart stopped beating and my hands turned cold
And my heart stopped beating and my hands turned cold
And my heart stopped beating and my hands turned cold
And I believe what the father toldAnd there’s one last flavor I’ll ask for you
And there’s one last flavor I’ll ask for you
And just one last flavor I’ll ask for you
You can see that my grave is kept clean
Got up early and watched fog rivers rolling from the little porch off our room off the Parkway.
Traveling again at last.
Am recently returned from a long day in the upper mountain counties with a botanist friend. Posts coming about that, but first a few examples of this fall’s color and other sundries collected on Saturday and on a Parkway drive last weekend. Up first, the rose hips of Rosa palustris Marshall — the Swamp Rose, photographed Saturday, Oct. 13 in Allegheny County. Following that a striped maple near Linville Falls photographed Oct. 7 and cranberries and sphagnum also photographed Oct. 13 in Allegheny County.
Tropical storm Gabrielle (for now, it’s still subtropical) formed last night and is an immediate threat to the Outer Banks. A lot of big weather watchers are sniffing at the low winds, but don’t be lulled into thinking Sunday is going to be a walk in the park.
Jeff Masters looks at the impact:
Recent model runs have been pushing the track of Gabrielle further and further out to sea, and there is a good chance the storm will miss making a direct hit on the U.S. Regardless, most of the North Carolina coast from Wilmington to Kill Devil Hills will experience heavy rain of 1-4 inches. Tropical storm-force winds and a 3-4 foot storm surge will also affect some areas.
As Felix speeds toward the Yucatan, there’s a new invest. At least one read on this disturbance has it veering a bit north.
Via Steve Gregory:
The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday night, and under 5 knots by Wednesday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. The 12Z (8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both develop 98L into a tropical storm, but keep it below hurricane strength. The storm will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. Given 98L’s more northerly starting location, it may eventually affect Puerto Rico.